The Growing Manga Threat? – Part I

I don’t read manga. I expect that will change at some point, but after a 25 year hiatus I’m having enough of a time figuring out what to read in the genres I’m familiar with without adding something to which I have no real connection. But I am fascinated by manga’s role in the business side of the industry in as much as I’m fascinated in the business side of the entire industry as a whole, and manga  comprises a large slice of that.

Before you go any further you might want to read Dirk Deppey’s most recent Opening Shot column in The Comics Journal.  If you're too busy for that, his conclusion summarizes his thesis fairly well:

It has now been conclusively demonstrated that the young female reader is, in fact, quite willing to buy comics. She just doesn't want yours. She's got her own thing now, and if you want her to notice you again, you're going to have to play by her rules. If you can't be bothered to do that, you have no one to blame but yourself.

Does the whole discussion boil down to the American comic book industry simply not getting it? (Or perhaps choosing not to get it.) That sure seems to be the case, at least based on anecdotal evidence, but I’m sure there’s an element of not wanting to be “got” as well – at least not by those ham-handed publishers of cape and tights books. Those guys couldn’t possibly ever get it, could they? Well, yes they could and probably will - and sooner than you might expect.

My logic in this is simple: follow the money. Okay, on the surface this may not seem so logical, after all, Marvel has seen their publishing sales revenues increase (you’ll have to click around for your own verification) as follows over the last few years:

2001 – $49.5 million
2002 – $54.4
2003 - $73.2
2004 – $85.9

And while the 2nd quarter of 2005 was slightly lower than the previous year’s, they’re still up slightly overall on the year. And DC? Well, Time Warner seems to lump their numbers in with the overall publishing division, making it tough to tell exactly how they’re doing (anyone who can point me to an article breaking out DC’s numbers would have my never-ending gratitude – or at least a thank you), but let’s assume the numbers are similar. Setting aside manga, the general consensus seems to be that comic sales are on the rise, albeit not at the speculation induced pace of the early 90’s, and that the base group of comic book buyer is stronger than ever. But -- and you knew a “but” was coming -- no matter how you slice it, $100 million in sales is pretty small potatoes in the grand scheme of big business. If it wasn’t for the licensing revenue neither Marvel nor DC would likely be viewed as highly successful businesses. Now maybe it’s unfair to leave the licensing revenue out of the picture but the publishing divisions are business units and should be scrutinized as such. Bottom line, until someone admits that the publishing divisions are loss-leaders for the licensing arms, I assume that same someone expects these divisions to make money.

So, how about those manga sales? Since Tokyopop is privately held we don’t have their numbers, nor do we have the number two player, Viz Media’s, for similar reasons. Diamond reports them at a combined 5.23% share of dollar value in the market for this last June (I’m leaving Dark Horse out of the math since their offerings are not manga exclusive), but we all know this simply reflects the direct market and as Brian Hibbs will tell you, manga is not exactly the star of direct market sales:

I truly don’t understand why we’re seeing such drastically different results in the DM than in the bookstores with manga. The other places on the list where BookScan shows great sales, I’m doing well with that work – but not manga. I can barely give manga away. Sales are compressed in the first weeks, then I never sell another copy again. I’m stuck with a disproportionate amount of unsalable stock, and more product is being released than I could possibly rack, even if the sales were there. This perplexes me.

But manga clearly does sell somewhere, as Brian explains in this column and as a simple glance at the relative shelf space it’s afforded at the major booksellers will tell you. How much? Enough to get people talking and certainly enough to grab the attention of the big two. Let’s face it, you walk in to a Borders and see a four foot section of poorly organized Marvel and DC graphic novels (and a few others) sitting right next to 16 feet of manga and you get a sense for which way the wind is blowing. And while B&N's commitment to graphic novels is far more complete, they too have a significant manga offering. The big guys want this business, no matter how many guys Dirk Deppey knows that think it’s okay to alienate a market that could potentially be equal or greater than their existing book of business. The real question is can they get there and what do they do once they arrive? And in Part II I’ll answer both those questions.

Comments

[Zilla]

i'm not sure if it's my exposure or what but for some reason manga is just so unappealing to me... the style just rubs me the wrong way. that being said - i have been *trying* to dip my toe by reading Blade of the Immortal (and it's not half bad) :)

[Kurt]

I feel somewhat the same way, but I'm coming around. I suspect there are more than a few titles that would appeal to guys like us, we just have to find them. There's also plenty that aren't meant to appeal to us, and that's cool too.

[Tivome]

You know what superheroes fans misses when they don't read manga? Hot young girls waiting to hug the crap out of you (it's call glomping) when they found out you like the title they'd liked. Tons of young hotties parading in revealing costums, and ready to kiss you if you recognized their obscure Yaoi or Shoujo characters. Those who read only pamphlets will never know such joy. ^.^

There's your secret sauce for manga's success. Massive fans of boys and girl age 8-18. Something the Big2 will never, ever see again.

[Zilla]

on some level that may be true... but there are some manga aimed at adult kids (over 25) no?

[mob]

Wasn't there a wave of romantic comics back at the dawn of Marvel and DC era? Maybe superhero comics were just such a windfall that big American comics publishers tapped that source of revenue and forgot to innovate. There is still time for change.

[Lyle Masaki]

I posted a reaction to Hibbs' column a while back:

http://lyle.typepad.com/blog/2005/02/selling_manga.html

Basically, my feeling is that Hibbs' experience reflects his rare situation. Hibbs' store is one of the best places to go for comics, but he has a major manga competitor less than a mile away -- a competitor that has a huge stock that's well maintained (complete runs will usually be found for the series they carry). I suspect his manga sales are heavily frontloaded because his store isn't in a position to draw customers looking for older manga releases -- they head towards the competitor where they'd be sure to find it.